Monday, January 5, 2009

Ohio State-Texas Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Wrapup

I feared that Ohio State had left too much time on the clock after they scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:58 left in the 4th-quarter, but that fourth-and-three play got my hopes up, as when I first saw the play I thought that WR James Kirkendoll was short of the red line. That turned out to be false however, and Colt McCoy was able to march down the field and hit WR Quan Cosby on that slant route for the thirty-yard touchdown. With that said, I thought that Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Peacock's play-calling on that drive was particularly poor to say the least, as his decision to play man-to-man coverage before Cosby's score let McCoy pick apart OSU on slant and drag routes over the middle (that wouldn't have happened in zone coverage) and on Cosby's play he had the safeties covering guys instead of dropping back to cover the deep ball on their respective side of the field. If Peacock would have called a cover 2-man under or even a cover one then Cosby most likely would have been stopped at about the five yard line, giving the Bucks 16 seconds of defense to play. Other major factors in the outcome of this game was the quarterback play of Terrelle Pryor compared to that of Colt McCoy, the sidelining of Beanie Wells and the first missed two-point conversion by the Buckeyes and second missed field goal by Aaron Pettrey. If Pryor throws a better in to Brian Robiskie on the two-point conversion when the score was 17-15 early in the fourth quarter instead of the ball that dropped short of him (say a ball up and to his side away from the defender) then the sure-handed Robiskie (when the ball is thrown between his thigh-slightly above his head, he has trouble with low balls due to his height) probably makes the catch, which would have put the score at 17-17 and calls for the Buckeyes to kick the extra point on their next score, putting the score at 24-17 and meaning that the game would have gone into overtime assuming everything stays the same. Of course though if the snap is handled correctly during Pettrey's second field goal in the first quarter and Pettrey hits the kick (he hit one from about the same if not the same distance on his first kick) instead of pulling it, then the Buckeyes probably kick both extra points on their next drive and the game goes to overtime tied at 24 also. The passing of Pryor really hurt the Buckeyes, as while McCoy made the large number of completions that he usually makes in a game (Texas usually calls mostly high-probability short passing plays meaning that McCoy will complete most of them. McCoy did not have his best game, as he should have had three picks instead of one due to about three-to-five bad decisions that he made), Pryor's throws were short and inaccurate for the most part. Todd Boeckman proved to be the team's better passer in this game, as his precise deep ball to Brian Robiskie and fade to Pryor proved. You could argue that the Buckeyes would have won this game had Boeckman been the starter for its entirety, as they would have had a decent chance of scoring at least one more field goal or touchdown with him in the game, but then again you wouldn't have Pryor's 78 yards on 15 carries if he was in the game and the Longhorns did get a very effective pass-rush (especially on the edge with Brian Erakbo and Henry Melton) on both QB's throughout the game. Beanie Wells had 106 yards on 16 carries for the Buckeyes with a touchdown, but he sat out most of the second-half of the game (I believe that the medical staff was concerned that he might have suffered a concussion), which had a big impact on the Buckeyes ability to run the football. Sure Boone Herron had 5 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown, but if Wells is still in the game you could argue that the Buckeyes would have continued to run the football more in the second-half which could have led to them scoring with the clock at :58 instead of 1:58. Props to Herron though for having a good game. Cosby and RB Chris Ogbonnaya really impressed me for the Longhorns, as Cosby reminded me of how quick he is coming out of his breaks and Ogbonnaya turned out to be faster than I originally thought he was. I think Cosby could be as high as a late-second round pick in the draft this year and Ogbonnaya's performance might get him picked in the sixth-seventh round, as Selvin Young (the Current Broncos star back who I believe had a better career for the Longhorns than Prior) went undrafted in '07 and I think knowing that will probably cause a NFL GM to foresee him as a potential efficient NFL back like Young. What the guy has overcome in his life alone is unbelievable, as two of his adopted brothers have passed away in his lifetime. Of the Buckeyes' two best players entering the draft this year, Robiskie and CB Malcolm Jenkins (who earned the Champ Bailey/Nnamdi Asomugha treatment from McCoy last night) I think Jenkins goes in the top 8 while Robiskie goes between the mid second-early third round. I think McCoy will stay at Texas for another year depending on whether OU QB Sam Bradford and Georgia QB Matt Stafford (both of whom who I believe are better NFL prospects than McCoy) stay in school or not (I believe he might come out if both enter the draft, I would put it at a 70% probability). It will now be interesting to see what type of reaction Texas' narrow win generates from AP Top 25 voters and DI coaches (one of which) has a say in whether their will be a split national championship this year or not. Yes, Texas beat the no. 10 team in the nation, but had to come from behind late to do so against an OSU team that critics had been dogging all year as being an average-to-good team playing in a mediocre conference when many people (not me who picked them to win and at least cover their +8 spread-the Jan. 30-31 Caesars spread documented in my BCS picks article) thought that they would destroy them. If I'm a coach or writer with a vote I put them third behind the winner of the Oklahoma-Florida game and Utah, though if Oklahoma wins somewhat convincingly I may give them a no. 2 vote, as I strongly believe that Oklahoma has improved enough on defense since they last played Texas that they would beat them if the two teams were to play today at the Cotton Bowl or another neutral site.

Friday, January 2, 2009

AllState Sugar Bowl Post Game Analysis

Utah's 31-17 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl is not a good thing for me and the rest of the college football purists who believe in the current BCS system that separates the big-time teams from the San Jose State's and North Texas's of the world, as now I will not only possibly have to hear about Texas' right to share the BCS National Championship title with Oklahoma or Florida, but may also have to hear about Utah being deserving of sharing it and the need for a playoff system. There were really four keys to the Utes winning this game: Utah QB Bryan Johnson, Utah's no-huddle offense, Utah's pass rush and the Tide secondary consistently missing tackles.
Johnson really surprised me in this game, as his reads were excellent and he not only displayed a strong arm but also the ability to be a finesse passer. I thought he was goanna come into this game and throw the ball up in the air like I saw him do before this season, and because of that Alabama super safety Rashad Johnson and co. would get a couple of picks and win the game easily, but he really proved me wrong, and I think he's earned the right to be a 5th round pick in the NFL Draft this April because of his solid performance against a big-time SEC defense.
The Utah receivers also impressed me a lot. Freddie Brown (6 catches, 175 yards, 1 TD) ran great routes and looked to have hands softer than an Italian pizza makers, and Bradon Godfrey and Brent Casteel also displayed an impressive ability to run crisp routes, read defenses and get open throughout the game.
Alabama could not seem to handle Utah's no-huddle offense for some reason, and I don't understand why. They have good LB's and DB's, but on Utah's first drive they went down the field quick and no 'Bama LB's or DB's seemed to be in position to make a play on any of Johnson's passes. I know that Tide coach Nick Saban had his defense practice against a no-huddle offense in his bowl preparation, as he is one of the best coaches in college football and prepares for everything that his opponent could possibly come onto the field with seeing as he is a Belichick disciple and all, so he must have been just as surprised as I was that they couldn't handle it.
We should note that not only was Alabama without all-american LT Andre Smith (suspended, improper contact with agent), but Saban said that the team was also without their second best OL (I didn't hear who it was and there is no information on espn.com about it) in his postgame news conference, so this game clearly would have been different had Smith and this other guy been on the field, but you still have to give credit to the Utes D-line and LB's for getting such a good pass-rush on 'Bama QB John Parker Wilson throughout the game. Their stunts and DL shifts were very creative and caught the Crimson Tide's OL's off-guard time-and-time again, though 'Bama TE Travis McCall showed that he is not that good of a pass-blocker on that third-down play on the Tide's first possession of the game. Utes defensive coordinator Gary Andersen should do a great job at WAC Utah State if he can get his D-line to play like they did tonight.
Alabama's secondary missed tackle after tackle in this game, and that really cost them. They gave up a lot of big plays that could have gone for only 5-10 yards had their first player to the ball made his tackle, and could have probably forced a couple more punts. Bama CB Kareem Jackson was probably the biggest foe in this regard, but in general I saw a ton of arm tackles by UA LB's and DB's in this game. I bet that Saban works on tackling come the second or third UA spring practice in March. But with Alabama's bad tackling set aside, the UA DL sure didn't help R. Johnson, Jackson and Javier Arenas and co. in coverage, as they didn't get nothing on B. Johnson all night.
I love 'Bama wide receiver Julio Jones, as he has the body and physicality of a tight end combined with a great 40-time (I think I read somewhere that he ran something like a 4.2 last spring or back in his senior year of high school), but I'm disturbed at how many passes he's dropped this season in big games. I've seen him drop passes against LSU, Florida and now a couple against Utah. He should have caught that pass on the deep in route in the third quarter, but it bounced off the tip of his hands just like that deep crossing route he dropped in the first quarter. Jones has been a star receiver since high school and is definitely a future first round draft pick, but he needs to put a lot of work in this spring if he wants to cut down on his drops.
Alabama would have had a legit shot at winning this game in the fourth quarter if Leigh Tiffin would have made those two field goals earlier in the game, as it would have been 23-28 going into the fourth quarter, making it so Alabama could have tried to reestablish their running game which they virtually abandoned (Glen Coffee got only 13 carries and Mark Ingram saw only eight). They could have tried to run Coffee outside on a couple of HB toss or stretch plays to see if they might break a big run or two, but that couldn't happen due to Tiffin's inability to draw a kick in. Tiffin was one of the main reasons why current Jacksonville Jaguars quarterbacks coach Mike Shula got fired from Alabama in 2006 (see 3-4 missed field goals in close loss to Arkansas that year), and he kicked real good this year but didn't help tonight.
And last but not least, a shoutout to Utes QB/RB Matt Asiata and kicker Louie Sakoda. Asiata is probably the only samoan to sport a better hairstyle than the Steelers' Troy Polamalu with his long braids and did a good job of operating the wildcat offense for the Utes while also having some good rushes as an RB (he only had 29 yards on 13 carries but one of those rushes was that first quarter Utes touchdown), and Sakoda is a San Jose kid and the best kicker in the country.

Random Thoughts:
1) Utah probably has the most players of polynesian descent on their team not counting Hawai'i. I saw a huge number of Polynesian players on their sidelines and in the game, and it is no secret that the Utes have often tried to tap into the Hawaiian pipeline going back to the days of Urban Meyer (and possibly before that). Think Bruce McMackin wishes he could have a couple of players on his Rainbow Warriors team right now after getting stomped by Notre Dame 49-21? Plus I believe that the state of Utah has a somewhat large Polynesian population, though I cannot substantiate that. Utah definitely has more polynesians on their team than Oregon or Arizona, which would be the only other two teams that I could think of that sport a large number of Polynesians on their teams other than McMackin's squad (Southern Methodist might creep into the picture a little later now that former UH coach June Jones is the sideline general for the Mustangs).
2) Utah was definitely a better team than Alabama in the Sugar Bowl tonight, but their players were sure outclassed by the Tide. I saw a couple of Utes players acting like punks on the field tonight via trash talk (see Casteel) and unnecessary celebratory actions (see LB Stevenson Sylvester), whereas I saw Bama players giving Utes a hand after they were tackled and congratulating them after their win. Saban should be proud.
3) I don't know if Utah will get another trip to a BCS game next year, but they should be able to contend for another Mountain West Conference title in 2010 as long as whoever takes over at QB for Johnson is productive. They have to go to Oregon early in the season, but other than that they will probably just have to deal with BYU (without QB Max Hall) and TCU again in '10. They are definitely as big of a program as you can get while playing in a non-BCS conference (yes, bigger than Boise State), and should now focus on trying to get an invitation into the Pac-10 so as to make sure that coach Kyle Wittingham doesn't leave for a BCS school in the near future like Urban Meyer did for Florida back in '04 after leading Alex Smith and co. to an undefeated season and a Fiesta Bowl win over a hapless Pittsburgh team.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl Analysis

I am going to analyze every BCS bowl game for you, starting with the Rose Bowl Presented by Citi between Derrick Williams and Penn State and Rey Maualuga and USC and the 75th FedEx Orange Bowl between Mardy Gilyard and Cincinnati and Victor 'Macho' Harris and Virginia Tech. Peter Cady knows more about football than all of you bums combined (despite me being a Serbian immigrant who has spent little time in this country), so this is the least that I can do:

The Rose Bowl Presented by Citi:
USC did what it has done the last two years today in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl: It played their A-game, executing on all sides of the ball. Now once again people will wonder if 'SC deserved to play in the BCS National Championship game (No). The story of the game was all of the mistakes that Penn State made in the first half, both mentally and physically from the coordinators on down, as Mark Sanchez killed PSU safety Anthony Scirrotto and the Nittany Lions cover two look with post route after post route to Damian Williams and Ronald Johnson (PSU D-Coordinator Tom Bradley should have had his D play a cover 3 scheme after he first got beat) to go along with a good amount of PSU offsides and personal foul penalties along with a Stephfon Johnson fumble after a big gain on a screen play and blown coverage on a Sanchez deep ball to Ronald Johnson (blown coverage by Sciriano). The Trojans were too much for the Nittany Lions to handle on both offense and defense, and it showed on both sides of the ball, but with that said, I was very impressed with how Jordan Norwood and Deon Butler did against the 'SC secondary, as they both ran solid routes and weren't afraid to go up against 'SC safety Taylor Mays, who hits almost as hard as the Late Great Sean Taylor. I was also quite surprised with how well PSU backup RB Staphfon Green did against 'SC's defense. Both Green and starting RB Evan Royster (who left the game in the first quarter with a leg injury) averaged 5.7 yards per carry, pretty impressive considering how fast 'SC's D is. PSU QB Daryll Clark had a decent game statistically (21/36, 273 yards, 2 td's/int's). He wasn't the reason why PSU lost the game, and didn't make too many bad reads. I think he'll kill it this year even though he'll have to work with a lot of new receivers. He'll improve his footwork and look to make more finesse throws than just chucking it deep to the post. If I'm Ronald Johnson, I declare for the NFL Draft right now, as essentially all he would be going up against would be Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree, Ohio State's Brian Robiskie, some OU receivers and the PSU receivers Derrick Williams, Norwood and Butler. He could easily be a mid-late first round pick this April depending on his 40-time. I don't think Patrick Turner will be much of a hit in the NFL, as he runs sluggish routes and drops more passes than a Cal wide receiver. I think at best he'll be a fifth round draft pick, and won't be more than a Michael Jenkins type receiver in the NFL, a guy capable of a big play here or there mixed in with a couple of drops in between. Maualuga has a legit chance of being the next Ray Lewis in the NFL if he can cut down on his over-pursuits. He'd be a great fit for the St. Louis Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars or Cleveland Browns. The Niners or Raiders should both take dead aim at drafting Mays (if the junior comes out), as he can both hit hard and cover in man-to-man. He could go down as the next Ronnie Lott in the NFL. Look for USC CB Cary Harris to also be a starter as a rookie in the NFL next year. And last but not least, shoutout to 'SC left tackle Charles Brown (#71) and receiver David Ausberry. I interned with these guys in Los Angeles last summer, and they are both class acts and very nice guys, and both of them had solid games today, as Brown was solid at the LT spot and Ausberry caught a WR screen pass for a 5-yard gain.

The 75th FedEx Orange Bowl:
Fox's production of this game really annoyed me, as they kept on shoving ugly-looking programs from past Orange Bowl games down my throat after they came back from commercials to commemorate this bowl's 75th anniversary, they didn't show the team's timeouts below their name on the screen like ESPN does and the announcing by Thom Brennaman (normally a good announcer) and Charles Davis (mediocre) was horrible. And furthermore you had to see Cincinnati Bearcat head coach Brian Kelly and the rest of the UC staff in their ridiculously ugly adidas red white and black gear that is complete with ridiculous color schemes that make you want to jump into the bay, far from the plush Nike gear that Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer and his staff sport on the sidelines. Most fans wouldn't think that the actual game between the Hokies and Bearcats was much better, but those are the types of fans that wait outside the Dairy Queen for a tornado to come by (shot courtesy of the Jim Rome Show presented by the premiere radio networks), the types of fans that don't like defense. The story of this game was how much of a swarming unit the Hokies defenders were. Hokies safety Victor 'Macho' Harris is a sure first round draft pick. How he defended that Tony Pike deep ball down the right sideline in the first quarter was something special. He didn't look up for the ball, he just kept running with the faster Bearcats receiver to get in position and then read where his hands and eyes were before tipping the ball and aiding in a Hokies interception. I was also really impressed with fellow safety Kam Chancellor for how he played, and shoutout to Hokies linebacker Barquell Rivers for stuffing Pike at the goal line on that fourth-and-1 play at the 7:30 portion of the fourth quarter. Also shoutouts to Hokies LB Cody Grimm, CB Stephan Virgil, Chancellor and DE Orion Martin for each getting picks off of Pike. The whole Hokies unit in general played like madmen, just like they have throughout the year. They swarm ball carriers and get good rushes on QB's while not over-pursuing in the process. I was concerned that they were goanna get lit up after Pike and Cincy drove down the field and threw that touchdown to Mardy Gilyard (that was a great ball and a great catch by Gilyard) early in the first quarter, but from there on out Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster (one of the better DC's in the country) got his unit in check and completely shut down that UC offense (the Hokies special teams helped out a lot on that to). Hokies QB Tyrod Taylor is a winner (period) despite not being the best passer in the world (he can run just as well as former Va. Tech QB and Miami Dolphins WR Marcus Vick, not Michael). He's a great game manager and leader despite being only a sophomore, and he reads defenses well. He could easily be a Heisman contender in '09 or '10 if he works on his passing game (and in particular his deep balls). He's a future NFL player for sure, whether its at QB or WR. Va. Tech RB Darren Evans also really impressed me with both his between the tackles running and elusiveness. I think he's a better Hokies back than Kevin Jones, and is arguably just as good as OSU's Beanie Wells (he runs pretty much the same as him, though he's not quite as big). This guy's another future NFL player, and could be better than Green Bay's Ryan Grant if given the opportunity to be a starter. And last but not least, Va. Tech TE Greg Boone. This guy is something else. He looks out of shape in uniform but runs almost as fast as fellow big skill player Javorskie Lane (RB/FB Texas A&M) and has great hands. It was an honor to watch him play, and I think that he could be an Alge Crumpler-type tight end in the NFL if he turns out to be as fast as the Tennessee Titans tight end. Quite frankly (shout out to Stephen A!) I am not real high on Pike after watching this game, as while he has looked good when I have seen him earlier this year, he looked like Colt Brennan against the '07 Georgia D in the Sugar Bowl yesterday: Outmatched. His footwork was shaky to go along with his reads and throws, once again proving that anybody can be a successful passer in a shotgun 75% passing offense, as you just get the ball and throw it with hardly any footwork involved. The only Cincinnati player that I was genuinely impressed with was WR Gilyard, as he's tall (though not as tall as I thought he was. He's only 6-1), fast and versatile, something that USC WR Patrick Turner wishes he was. That ball that he caught for a touchdown in the first quarter was one of the better catches that I have seen this year. He reminded me a lot of Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry, and I think he could be a slightly lesser-receiver in the NFL. He's a senior and I think he could be a third-round pick if he has a good 40-time in the February combine. If not then he'll probably go in the 5th or 6th round. Fellow Bearcat receivers Dominick Goodman and Marcus Barnett also looked good. I think Goodman (a senior) will see time in an NFL training camp this summer, but I don't think that he will be drafted in April, and since both Gilyard and Barnett(once again another correlation to Brennan and the '07 Hawai'i team-a squad that is three deep at receiver but lacks a dominant run game that can carry it to victory), I don't know if Cincinnati will be able to fend off Pittsburgh, West Virginia or South Florida next year for the Big East title. Switching sides, I think Virginia Tech would have a legitimate shot to be a BCS National Championship contender in '09 if not for the fact that they start the year against Nick Saban and Alabama at the Georgia Dome (that's a 25-17 'Bama win), but I digress. Taylor and the Hokies got to the Orange Bowl this year despite having to replace now NFL players Eddie Royal (WR, Denver Broncos), Josh Morgan (WR, San Francisco 49ers) and the crazy good Xavier Adibi (LB, Houston Texans) from last year's OB team, and Evans along with a better passing Taylor will probably lead the Hokies to another ACC Championship this year if Randy Shannon and Miami, Butch Davis and North Carolina or Bobby Bowden and Florida State (don't kid yourselves, the Seminoles will have one of their better teams in the 21st century come September) don't have have something to say about it, as they meet Miami, NC and Boston College in Blacksburg with their toughest road game being at Georgia Tech (they also play Nebraska at home on Sept. 25). They could easily go 11-1 (8-0 ACC Coastal) in 2009 if they play as well as they did tonight, though they will have to replace Harris on D.

Random Thoughts:
1) It was nice to see Serbian Vlade Divac playing basketball on TV again on that Taco Bell ad for the Gordita crunch. Most Taco Bell ads stink (especially compared to Jack in the Box ads), but that one was ok.
2) ESPN is shameless. Who else would promote the April Master's (ESPN's next big event) in January except the Microsoft of sports television. I'm just glad that NPR reporter Mike Tirico wasn't featured in any of those spots. I can't wait 'till next year's BCS games (which ESPN has the rights to) where they will be shoving the supermeaningless Pro Bowl down my throat (another event which ESPN will have the rights to in '10).
3) Kirk Herbstreit and Brent Musburger are the best sports announcer combination in all of sports. Herbstreit has the same level of enthusiasm that I have for college football (that of a kid who has just drank 5 Mountain Dew Code Red's) and breaks down plays better than Ron Jaworskie (when he is on Monday Night Football, not when he is on NFL Matchup-obviously, there's more time to break down plays on NFL Matchup) or Jon Madden, who is too rudimentary in his analysis of NFL games. And shifting to Musburger, the guy has a whitty sense of humor to him, speaks on a much more friendlier level to his viewers than the pompous Tirico does (the man makes you feel more inferior than a French waiter in Paris while mentioning obvious observations/facts) and also announces with passion like Herbstreit commentates. In a world where Tirico, Tony Kornheiser and Jon Barry can be announcers/commentators, this pair gives us hope that sports announcing will not be diluted much further (well, at least a little-Note to NFL Network: Don't let Rich Eisen ever call an NFL game!).