2009 NBA Mock Draft

Here is my mock draft for the 2009 NBA Draft. I will go so far as to guarantee you that I will hit on at least 20 of these picks and that my analysis will be spot on in regards to the careers that these players will have in the NBA.

1) Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin, F, Oklahoma. I watched Griffin play a lot this past year, and am not as impressed with his game as most people. His three point shot is poor and his inside game is highly overrated. He’ll be a consistent scorer in the league, but not a dominant one like Kobe Bryant. Think of Griffin as a medium between Mike Miller and Richard Hamilton from the standpoint that his point totals will rarely top 20 on most nights. Tyreke Evans will be a much better player than Griffin. I’d rather take him than Griffin if I’m the Clippers.
2) Memphis Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut. I love Thabeet as a Dikembe Mutombo-type shotblocker in the NBA who will cause fits for most NBA big men on defense, and am much more optimistic about his ability to improve on offense than most people. I think he could be a consistent 15-to-25 point scorer for the Grizzlies by the start of 2010. He showed me light years of improvement in his footwork around the rim in March, and he could develop into a Dwight Howard-type presence if his touch improves. Memphis should pick Thabeet over Ricky Rubio, as Mike Conley is still only the equivalent of a college junior and had some good games down the stretch last year.
3) Oklahoma City Thunder: Ricky Rubio, G, DKV Joventut (Spain). Rubio is the best point guard in this year’s draft due to his quickness and Steve Nash-type ability to see the floor. He’ll lead the Thunder to the playoffs this year and we’ll be a better version of Nash and Jason Kidd.
4) Sacramento Kings: Tyreke Evans, G/F, Memphis. Tough pick here for the Kings from a standpoint that their biggest need is a good big man. However, Evans is the best player on the board at this point and we’ll kill it right away in the NBA like O.J. Mayo did last year, as he can shoot lights out from the perimeter as well as snap fools’ ankles off the dribble. He can play point guard, shooting guard and small forward, and we’ll give Sacramento a deadly 1-2-3 combination with Beno Udrih and Kevin Martin.
5) Minnesota Timberwolves: James Harden, G/F, Arizona State. Harden’s a great scorer, as he can drive to the basket and shoots well from the perimeter, and while he didn’t do a great job of setting up his teammates at Arizona State from a passing standpoint, he provided a Kobe-type presence by commanding double teams and so much attention in zones. He’ll do the same thing for the Timberwolves right away, and we’ll be no worst of an NBA player than Griffin.
6) Minnesota Timberwolves: Stephen Curry, G, Davidson. I don’t like Del’s son as much as most people. He’s not a great passer and doesn’t seem to be able to drive or set up his shot at all. He won’t be any better than J.J. Redick in the NBA.
7) Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill, F/C, Arizona. I Love how this guy developed from his sophomore year to his junior year from a physicality standpoint. Two years ago he would shy away from contact in the paint, but this year he would back down his defenders and take the ball right under the basket instead of settling for hook shots. He’s also a good rebounder and kick-out passer. It will be tough for him to get minutes on a team that features Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf and Brandon Wright, but he has all the tools to be a solid big man in the NBA.
8) New York Knicks: Jrue Holliday, G, UCLA. Don’t like this guy at all. He had a bad season at UCLA despite having a lot of resources around him, and there is not one thing that he is great at. Don’t expect him to make any all-star games nor crack many starting lineups in his career.
9) Toronto Raptors: DeMar DeRozan, G, USC. I loved watching this guy play at ‘SC this past year, as he has a great shot and can drive with ease. He’ll be a better version of Mike Miller in the NBA.
10) Milwaukee Bucks: Brandon Jennings, G, Pallacanestro Virtus Roma (Italy). Jennings’ subpar performance in Italy this past year can be attributed to him playing against much more physical grown men and the limited minutes philosophy of his head coach (if he had played for Arizona this past year he would have been just as good as Jonny Flynn). However, with that said, I do not think Jennings’ future is very bright in the NBA, as his floor vision is very low and his ability to beat defenders off the dribble is mediocre. He has a good shot, but not much else, and we’ll be no better than Sebastian Telfair in the NBA.
11) New Jersey Nets: James Johnson, F, Wake Forest. Johnson will be everything that Lamar Odom wishes he was in the NBA, as he can play both the 3 and 4 and has both an inside and outside game. He’ll kill it right away in the NBA.
12) Charlotte Bobcats: Terrence Williams, G/F, Louisville. I liked Earl Clark more than Williams for Louisville this year, but with that said Williams will be a consummate pro in the NBA, as he plays good defense and has a high basketball IQ (he isn’t particularly great at shooting, penetrating or passing though). He’ll be another Francisco Garcia in the NBA.
13) Indiana Pacers: Tyler Hansbrough, F/C, North Carolina. He’ll be a good rebounder in the NBA, but the biggest question is whether he’ll be able to finish at the rim against physical big men (he struggled with that in college). I don’t think he can, and see him being no better than Ronny Turiaf.
14) Phoenix Suns: Earl Clark, G, Louisville. This is a good fit for the Suns, as Clark can run with their fast-paced offense and possesses both a good jumpshot and the ability to beat defenders off the dribble while being a solid defender at the same time. I see him being a Moe Williams-type player in the NBA.
15) Detroit Pistons: Jonny Flynn, G, Syracuse. Flynn is small and quick like T.J. Ford (he’s slightly bigger than Ford) but can shoot like Devon Harris. His game will be more Ford than Harris in the NBA though due to his size, but will be a contributor nonetheless (an NBA mainstay but not exactly a star).
16) Chicago Bulls: B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State. The Bulls are loaded in the backcourt, so guards like Jeff Teague and Gerald Henderson won’t do them much good. I really like Mullens for the Bulls, as he had a good year as a freshman for Ohio State and is a solid defender and rebounder who should develop significantly as an offensive presence in a couple of years. His body is pretty developed for his age (which is a good sign), which combined with his height should give him the ability to be just as good as Andris Biedrins in the NBA. My guess? He’ll be a slightly lesser version of Biedrins in the NBA while being a starter for the large majority of his career.
17) Philadelphia 76ers: Jeff Teague, G, Wake Forest. He’ll get the nod over Ty Lawson because of his potential to be a solid NBA point guard, and being tutored by a smooth veteran in Andre Miller won’t hurt him either. Back during March Madness I wrote that Teague seemed to be lost in the Bermuda Triangle for the second half of the year, but his jump shot and quickness gives him a high probability of being a successful point guard in the NBA. He won’t be the next Chris Paul, but I’ll bet you that he makes a couple of All-Star games during his career.
18) Minnesota Timberwolves: Eric Maynor, G, Virginia Commonwealth. Maynor’s quick and has a good mid-range jump shot (he’s not too shabby of a passer either). He could end up being the next Monta Ellis, but I see him being more of a Jordan Farmar-type role player in the NBA.
19) Atlanta Hawks: Gerald Henderson Jr., G/F, Duke. Henderson’s a good shooter and defender without much of an inside game. He’ll play about 20 minutes a night and score seven-to-ten points per game with a couple of assists mixed in but won’t do much after that unless he morphs into a Bruce Bowen-type defender, which I doubt.
20) Utah Jazz: Ty Lawson, G, North Carolina. Lawson’s best days ended in college, as he isn’t big enough to be a great scoring point guard in the NBA and doesn’t possess the floor vision to be a great passing guard, and at best he’s a so-so defender. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a UNC fan and I like the guy, but I don’t see him possessing the quickness to succeed as a point guard in the NBA. He’ll bounce around the league and won’t make a single all-star game during his career.
21) New Orleans Hornets: DaJuan Summers, F, Georgetown: Summers has a good inside game, but could be a better defender. His offense makes him a potential Paul Millsap hybrid, but I see him coming up just a bit short of fulfilling that potential due to his lack of a close-range jump shot.
22) Portland Trail Blazers: Pat Mills, G, Saint Mary’s, Calif. Mills is slippery quick and has great floor vision, though his perimeter game could be a lot better. His size won’t make him a great point guard, but he’ll be just as good as T.J. Ford in the NBA. His biggest problem right off the bat in Portland will be getting significant minutes.
23) Sacramento Kings: Omri Casspi, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel): My friends at NBADraft.net compare Casspi to Andres Nocioni and Hedo Turkoglu. He’s 6-9 though his body is not very muscular, and supposedly (I’ve never seen him play) can drive to the basket or shoot from the perimeter. From what I’ve read, I think he’ll be a slightly lesser version of Hedo Turkoglu. Geoff Petrie likes foreign players more so than many other GM’s in the league, so this pick would not be anything out of the ordinary for him.
24) Dallas Mavericks: Chase Budinger, F, Arizona. Whenever I watched this guy play at Arizona, it always seemed like he’d never score. He’s tall enough to get his shot off when defended in the NBA (and he has a good one) and will be a good defender with his range, and will drive inside sporadically, but not as much as he’ll shoot. Worst case scenario: J.J. Redick. Best case scenario: Mike Miller
25) Oklahoma City Thunder: Jonas Jerebko, F, Pallacanestro Biella (Italy): This is another guy that I’ve never seen play before, but my friends on NBADraft.net compare him to Thebo Sefolosha (who’s a better player than you think he is) who can hit threes and post up on the inside but is not effective with his shot when he’s on the move or off the dribble. However, NBAdraft.net’s ravings about his three-point shot combined with his ability to post up in the paint lead me to believe that he’ll be the median of Jermaine O’Neal and Tim Duncan in the NBA. Its a leap of faith, but what I’ve read leads me to believe that we have something special here with Jerebko.
26) Chicago Bulls: DeJuan Blair, F/C, Pittsburgh. I love Blair’s physicality and can-do attitude. He also has great footwork and has a knack for being in the right position as a defender. He could end up being a slightly lesser version of David West in the NBA.
27) Memphis Grizzlies: Austin Daye, F, Gonzaga. Daye has the ability to be the fulfillment of Lamar Odom, as he is skinny and athletic while still being able to play both small and power forward and has a good outside shot. Don’t expect him to possess much of an inside game for the Pacers, but he’ll fill up the stat sheet every night and we’ll be a decent double digit scorer as a pro.
28) Minnesota Timberwolves: Toney Douglas, G, Florida State: One of the more underrated guards in college last year, Douglas can both shoot from the perimeter and beat defenders off the dribble consistently, and at times shows a meanstreak on defense. He has a score-first mentality, and could be a Kevin Martin-type player in the NBA if he’s given enough minutes to flourish right away.
29) Los Angeles Lakers: DeMarre Carroll, F/C, Missouri. Though he will be picked late, Carroll will be a better, more physical version of LaMarcus Aldridge in the NBA, as he can both finish at the rim and his ability to retrieve rebounds almost rebounds me of Ben Wallace in his prime.
30) Cleveland Cavaliers: Vyacheslav Kravtsov, C, BC Kyiv (Ukraine). The Cavs desperately need an efficient big man, and this is the only guy available that fits the build of a dominant rebounding center, as he’s built like Hasheem Thabeet and looks good on film as a shot blocker. I’d take him and try to build him into a Dikembe Mutombo-type player and let the offense come later.